The U.S. base agreement has placed Colombia in the diplomatic crossfire between two hemispheric powers with dramatically different visions of the region's political future. The country's leadership should tread carefully in the difficult days ahead.
There are currently a number of ongoing disputes surrounding the base agreement. In the U.S., several prominent Democratic senators have questioned the Obama administration's decision to strengthen ties with the Colombian military, which has a questionable human rights record.
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and his closest allies in the region have attacked the deal with sensationalist, even violent rhetoric. Domestically, many Colombian politicians have criticized the relative secrecy of the deal's details and prior negotiations.
Perhaps the most important debate, however, is a subtler, more diplomatic struggle between an increasingly autonomous Latin America and the U.S. government. Not too long ago, the U.S. had a strong military presence in Latin America. In those days, the U.S.-Colombia base deal would have been entirely unremarkable. Today, on the other hand, nearly every Latin American leader has called on the U.S. to explain the agreement. It is abundantly clear, if it wasn't already obvious, that Latin America is no longer America's backyard.
The Emergence of Brazil
The U.S.'s main rival in this new political landscape is Brazil. For years, analysts have anticipated that Brazil could come to challenge American hegemony in Latin America, but few predicted that it would happen so quickly. America's role as a hemispheric leader has gradually been undermined by its waning relative power worldwide and its incompetence and neglect with regard to Latin America, especially in the past decade.
Meanwhile, Brazil has begun to grow into a global power and is quietly expanding its influence in the region. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva often steps forward to resolve intra-regional disputes, take leadership on issues of global concern and, in the case of the base deal, protect South America from perceived foreign intervention. In short, Brazil increasingly views itself as a far more appropriate regional leader than the distant, confused Americans.
Therefore, Brazil has begun to treat America as an equal in regional diplomacy. To some extent, the Americans have reciprocated; Lula was the first Latin American leader to be invited to Obama's White House.
The U.S.’s Misunderstanding of a Changing Region
Nevertheless, America's vision of regional politics is dramatically different from Brazil's. The U.S. has made only a limited effort to explain the base deal, rejecting, perhaps inadvertently, the region's almost unanimous calls for dialogue. From the point of view of the American government, especially the military and anti-drug establishment, the base deal is merely a small part of superpower's global wars on drugs and terrorism.
Indeed, a Washington Post editorial this week described the deal as "unremarkable" and was surprised by the controversy surrounding it.
What the American leadership seems to ignore, however, is the fact that many Latin Americans think, and hope, that the days of "unremarkable" American soldiers in the region are long gone.
In fact, most American observers, including those at the Democratic-leaning Washington Post, seem to attribute regional reservations about the base deal to Chavista propaganda and not a genuine feeling of regional autonomy. Lula, who in fact has challenged
Chavismo's takeover of the left in Latin America, is almost considered a secondary member of the Chavista bloc. Indeed, the Washington Post editorial failed to even mention President Lula, but instead focused on President Chavez.
Colombia’s Problematic Friendship
But, back to the central point, what does this all mean for Colombia?
Clearly, the country should rethink its relationship with the United States. Since the emergence of Hugo Chavez, Colombia has viewed the United States as a powerful bodyguard against regional rivals. In reality, America is more like a strong but clumsy friend whose behavior has isolated him from everyone else in the neighborhood. Colombia's alliance with the U.S. may bring some degree of protection against perceived threats, but it also carries significant risks.
The main risk is obviously that the "friendship" will drag Colombia into isolation. As Latin America moves toward greater autonomy and intra-regional cooperation, Colombia may find that its dependence on U.S. support will be an obstacle to broader and deeper collaboration with innovative, reasonable countries like Brazil and Chile.
In the past, Latin Americans needed only to look North for trade, aid and guidance. Today, the most successful Latin American countries are increasingly looking toward each other and, just as importantly, to
Asia and Europe. Attaching itself to an aging superpower while sacrificing other opportunities for cooperation may be an unwise strategic move for Uribe. The region as a whole, with very few exceptions, is moving in a new direction, but Colombia is staying put.
To be fair, Colombia does have a much more acute awareness of regional politics than the U.S., partly out of necessity. President Uribe was quick to schedule a symbolically constructive but otherwise unsuccessful damage-control tour around the region to explain the base deal. He seems to understand that Colombia cannot afford to become a regional pariah and has done a decent job of countering Chavez's deliberate efforts to isolate Colombia.
Nevertheless, in the long run, Colombia is isolating itself. Although Lula and Chavez do not see eye to eye on many issues, they at least agree that Latin America could benefit from greater independence from the United States and, in that sense, their general vision contrasts with that of Uribe.
The base deal is a complex and multidimensional issue, but Colombia would do well to remember that its already delicate relationship with Latin America as a whole is on the line.
